The NY Times’ Economix bloggers have had a banner week:
Catherine Rampell, The Fries-With-That Economy:
One of the more striking patterns in the recovery has been the fast clip of low-wage job growth. The best example of this is probably in food services and drinking places, which have been adding jobs for 37 consecutive months. (Employment over all has been growing for 30 consecutive months.) Over that time, eating and drinking places have added 856,200 jobs.
As a result of all this cumulative hiring, the industry accounted for almost one in 13 of all American jobs in March. That is the highest share it has held.
The average hourly wage in food services and drinking establishments is $11.98, which is about half that for the private sector over all ($23.82 an hour)…
Binyamin Applebaum, The Employment Rate:
Spare a moment for an overlooked economic indicator: The employment rate.
The government said Friday that 58.5 percent of Americans over the age of 16 had jobs in March.
This employment rate has held remarkably steady since 2010, never higher than 58.7 percent or lower than 58.2 percent. Job creation has basically kept pace with population growth. Nothing more. The share of Americans with jobs is still stuck about 5 percentage points lower than before the recession… [Note: Combining this information with Ms. Rampell’s above we conclude that if you’re fortunate to have a job, the probability that it’s a crappy one have increased.]
Floyd Norris, The Shrinking Ranks of the Working:
Just when you thought it might be safe for the Fed to begin to think about taking its foot off the accelerator, along comes a jobs report that makes the employment picture look much less rosy than we had thought.
The most distressing part of the report came from the household survey. It found that 206,000 fewer people were working in March than during the previous month. That would make it the worst month in more than a year. (The more widely followed establishment survey found employment rose by a disappointing 88,000.)
The household survey also found the labor force participation rate – the proportion of people at least 16 years of age who were working or looking for work – fell to 63.3 percent, the lowest rate since 1979.
That fuels the narrative that the unemployment rate is coming down not because the economy is getting better, but because people are giving up looking for jobs. It raises the specter that the Washington follies are having a more serious impact than we had thought…
Bruce Bartlett, Dynamic Scoring Once Again:
On March 22, the United States Senate adopted an amendment to S. Con. Res. 8, the concurrent budget resolution for fiscal year 2014, that would require the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation to produce estimates of the revenue effect of tax changes that incorporate their macroeconomic effects (Sec. 416).
While seemingly innocuous, this amendment opens the door to “dynamic scoring,” which Republicans have long supported to make it easier to enact tax cuts and harder to enact tax increases. Tellingly, they reject the idea of dynamic scoring on the spending side of the budget. [Note: Imagine that?] …
In practice, dynamic scoring is just another way for Republicans to enact tax cuts and block tax increases. It is not about honest revenue-estimating; it’s about using smoke and mirrors to institutionalize Republican ideology into the budget process. Why six Democrats joined the Senate Republicans in this move remains to be seen. [Note: At the risk of responding to a rhetorical question, “Because they’re cut from the same cloth? Because they’re spineless? Clueless?”]
And, finally, Ms. Rampell once again, Median Household Income Down 7.3% Since Start of Recession:
For the first time in over a year, median annual income fell by a statistically significant amount from the previous month, according to a report from Sentier Research.
Median annual household income in February 2013 was $51,404, about 1.1 percent (or $590) lower than the January 2013 level of $51,994.
Nice economy we have here Mr. President. Hell of a job you’re doing showing leadership…