Robust Analysis

Readings and occasional commentary

Robust Analysis

The Laken Riley Act

The Laken Riley Act passed 84-9 in the Senate and 251-170 in the House.

What problems will the Laken Riley Act help fix?

The acute issues at the US-Mexico border are:

  1. Insufficient government capacity to process asylum applications and other requests to enter the country;
  2. Limited housing, school capacity, and medical services for migrants.

The first issue could be addressed by adding staff to process applications;  the second by helping would-be Americans settle in areas where there is adequate housing supply, school capacity, etc. The latter is a real issue. Even if money were no object, there are material limits on the goods and services that can be provided to people seeking them.  There are finite number of homes, schools, doctors and nurses, etc. and additional ones can’t be created immediately on demand.  Infrastructure takes time to build.  It takes time for people to learn the skills that make them capable professionals.  Exceed the capacity of the system and it breaks down.  With that in mind, fewer people might seek to immigrate if the quality of life in their home country was more favorable, e.g., better economic and educational opportunities, less authoritarian government and/or social environment, lower crime. Towards that end, foreign aid to the countries that people are leaving might be helpful.

The Laken Riley Act addresses none of these things. One thing it will do however is deprive some people of due process based on their immigration status. Nothing good will come of that. Overall, it is a cynical, hateful piece of legislation. I thanked my Senators and Congressman for voting No.  (The motivation for this post were the Yes votes from craven Senate Democrats.)

Our community welcomes new neighbors and most of us are fine with some change, but communities have a finite capacity for growth before growth becomes disruptive.  Most of us are also quite willing to provide resources to other communities when they’re trying to lift themselves up, but our resources are finite.  Acknowledging preferences and limitations doesn’t prevent us from doing good.  We have goodwill and the capacity to help people who fear for their and their families’ well-being in their home community.  Let’s figure out how best to help them and get about doing so.

References:

 

“The System Failed”

From Dan Drezner’s, My Extremely Brief Take on January 6th:

Folks are going to point out that today marked a peaceful transfer of power, overseen by the loser of the last presidential election, and isn’t that a great thing for democracy?! Usually, it is. But the fact remains that the only reason for the peace is because the guy who has threatened or fomented political violence for the last ten years won the election this time around. America’s political elite appeased a bully, the American people endorsed that strategy, and now America’s economic elite is falling all over itself to appease the bully some more.

And when you think about that dynamic for more than half a second, you realize how pathetic it makes this country sound.

Useless Idiots: Vichy Liberals Are Not Our Friends

RFK Jr. is a grifter and a crank.  Unfortunately, Sens. Sanders and Fetterman are apparently open to supporting him for HHS Secretary.  Many will die if he is empowered to put his malevolent ideology into practice.  He must be stopped.  It would be depraved indifference for them to vote to confirm.

RFK Jr. has apologists beyond Sanders and Fetterman.  Give them no quarter.  From Dr. Benjamin Mazer, The Sanewashing of RFK Jr.:

Let’s be clear: Many scientists consider Kennedy to be a fool, and a ludicrous pick to run HHS, because the evidence supports that assessment. [Former Baltimore Public Health Commission and former Planned Parenthood President Leana] Wen nods to this in passing—Kennedy has a “long history of antiscience propagandism,” she writes—but otherwise she’s focused on the nitty-gritty of one particular public-health debate. So allow me to fill in some gaps: According to his 2021 book, The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health, RFK Jr. believes that Fauci and Gates are members of a “vaccine cartel” trying to kill patients by denying them hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin. He argues that this cartel secretly funded doctors to produce fraudulent studies showing that the drugs were ineffective against COVID—and that it did so in order to orchestrate global lockdowns and accelerate the construction of 5G cellular networks, which, in Kennedy’s understanding, are very, very bad.

From Gabriel Schoenfeld, Before Crackpot RFKism There Was Crackpot Lysenkoism: Continue reading

Burn-It-All-Down Populism

Catherine Rampell, Fan club for suspected shooter is a symptom of burn-it-all-down populism:

Public praise for a killer is an escalation of a troubling trend: bloodlust for destruction & retribution. Americans are rejecting leaders who propose solutions for problems, in favor of antiheroes who just want to burn everything down—figuratively or literally.

I disagree with Rampell’s characterization of Senator Warren’s statement as expressing sympathy with Mangione – Warren offered an explanation of the motivations for vigilantism, not an excuse for it – but otherwise I concur with her take:

Here’s the thing about indulging this annihilative reflex to infuriating social problems: Besides the obvious moral odiousness, it doesn’t fix the problems.

Murdering health-care executives won’t help more Americans get care. Purging the FBI won’t reduce crime. Jailing political enemies won’t lower egg prices.

It’s easier to break something than to build it. But to solve a problem, something eventually needs to be built. That part is boring, hard and, lately, not well appreciated by the public.

 

Thoughts for the Day – November 11, 2024

I haven’t posted much in recent years.   There are two reasons:  1)  Better things to do/things I enjoy more and 2) I’ve been a bit more at-ease with the world – not so much with the Big Picture but with it on a day-to-day basis.  So much for #2.

Observe, orient, decide, act.”

The nominal goals of the incoming administration include:

  1. Economic boom,
  2. Mass deportation,
  3. Relegation of half the population to second-class citizen status, and
  4. Non-violent coexistence with other nations

It doesn’t seem plausible that all of those things can exist simultaneously.  #1 is conditional on #4.  #2 and #3 will alienate international allies and result in a loss of goodwill that will #4 much more challenging.  On the domestic side, imagine that #s 2 and 3 and the violence necessary to implement them will alienate many people who maintain our security.  That feels unlikely to play out well in the long run – and perhaps not even in the short run.  Our adversaries are opportunistic.  They will try to take advantage of internal strife.  I hope he goes for #1 and #4.  He’ll trash our country just like he has every other one of his ventures, but going for #1 and #4 would leave us in the least worst position when (if?) people get serious about climbing out of the crater.  (Prediction:  He’ll go for 1-3 and think he can coerce 4. It won’t work and we’ll end up with 2 & 3.)

That’s hope and speculation more than observation but it’s part of how I’m trying to orient myself.

 

Question of the Day – November 9, 2024

Either people specify what they mean when they say “elite” or the term is just meaningless pejorative. Both parties are dominated by elites in any conventional sense of what that means!  The question is: Why are right-wing elites more palatable to voters than liberal ones?

-Jamelle Bouie

Grow the @#$% Up

Dan Drezner:

Trump did wreak a lot of carnage, both before and during the pandemic. His trade policies triggered an industrial recession in 2019, and his refusal to acknowledge the coronavirus made a bad situation far worse during the pandemic. Trump was a bad president who left the executive branch in a parlous state, but many Americans have nostalgia for a pre-pandemic life

[On Nov. 5] we will learn about the maturity of the median American voter. All I can say is that for those readers who know friends and relatives that are thinking about voting for Trump, tell them to grow up and act their age.