Syria (continued)

I thought the UK Parliament debate was constructive.   Some other commentaries I found constructive linked to here.

Sen. McCain made legitimate points in favor of an intervention during an NPR interview this morning.

Roger Cohen also made legitimate points in favor of intervention in the today’s NY Times, Red Lines Matter (emphasis added):

Europe knows, and [Berlin] in particular, about the importance of American “red lines.” West Berlin, caught for more than four decades 100 miles within the Soviet occupation zone, survived on the credibility of the U.S. commitment to it, demonstrated by the Allied airlift in response to the Soviet blockade of 1948.

A shattered Europe became whole, free and prosperous under the shield of U.S. credibility. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty spelled out that an armed attack against one member “shall be considered an attack against them all.” This was believable enough to deter a Soviet attack on Western Europe… It is the credibility of the United States as a European and Asian and Middle Eastern power that underwrites global security…

Syria, in the words of Secretary of State John Kerry, speaking of the chemical attack, has become a “moral obscenity.” The man bearing ultimate responsibility for that obscenity is Assad.

Values cannot be all of foreign policy; perhaps they cannot even be a quarter of it; but a U.S. foreign policy stripped entirely of values is no longer American. U.S. authority is tied to its moral stature as a state of laws committed to freedom. It is equally tied to the credibility of its word. In Syria the two inextricable strands of U.S. foreign policy — values and realpolitik — have come together.

That is the kernel of the matter now before Congress. As Senator John McCain has said, a no vote in Congress on a U.S. military riposte to the chemical weapons attack would be “catastrophic” for the United States and its credibility in the world. If Assad can thumb his nose at America anyone can, including the Islamic Republic of Iran.

My initial response to Obama’s decision to seek congressional support and to the long delay involved was that it betrayed a by-now familiar hesitancy. I have reconsidered: This is a necessary post-9/11 rebalancing from the dangerous “unbound powers” of the presidency of which Obama has spoken, powers that opened the way to the compromising of America’s “basic values” to which he also alluded this year.

American interests and values are aligned in requiring that Assad answer for his acts. Because Syrian diplomacy is now backed for the first time by the credible threat of force, it may even produce something over the next 10 days.

But I doubt it. In that case, Congress must assume its responsibilities.

Three days into the Cuban missile crisis, Gen. Curtis LeMay of the U.S. Air Force suggested the president’s refusal to order immediate air strikes on the Soviet missiles was “almost as bad as the appeasement at Munich.” He had mistaken Kennedy’s deliberation for indecision. The U.S. red line was upheld — as it must be in Syria today.

McCain’s and Cohen’s arguments in favor of intervention are valid.  So are the arguments against.  I think Syria is a no win situation.  No matter what actions are taken or not taken there will be negative consequences and plenty of opportunity to second-guess.

Cyprus update

Too soon for an epilogue, but it appears that the Cyprus bank situation is settling out.  In summary:

  • People who deposited big sums of money in uninsured accounts will take a big haircuts
  • Insured deposits less than 100,000 Euros remain whole
  • No bank run – perhaps due in part to limits on withdrawals

All things considered, it could have been a whole lot worse.  (Beware false equivalences but, if Iceland is to be a model for Cyprus, four and a half years after their banking crisis Iceland seem to be on the road to recovery – see also here.)

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Korean peninsula

From the NY Times:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea blocked South Koreans on Wednesday from crossing the heavily armed border to a jointly operated industrial park, raising doubt about the future of the last remaining major symbol of inter-Korean cooperation.

The move came four days after North Korea threatened to shut down the industrial park, in the North Korean town of Kaesong, out of anger over United Nations sanctions and joint military drills that the United States and South Korea are conducting on the Korean Peninsula.

More than 480 South Koreans — many with their trucks — who showed up at a border crossing Wednesday morning were denied permission to cross and had to turn around, said the Unification Ministry of South Korea, which is in charge of relations with the North. But North Korea promised to allow 861 South Koreans currently staying in Kaesong to return home if they wished, the ministry said. But with no replacements arriving, only 33 decided to return home on Wednesday.

“But with no replacements arriving, only 33 decided to return home…”  Really?  The fact that N. Korea is blocking your replacement from entering the country would motivate you to stay in N. Korea?  Sorry.  I’m not buying it.

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