Rate on 10-Year Treasuries since 1995 (blue line) and economists’ forecasts from 1996, 2000, 2005, 2010 and this year (colored lines with year of forecast indicated):

(Source)

Damn, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.   At what point does one say, “My models are clearly wrong.  I need to figure out why and I’m not going to make any more forecasts until I do and I fix my models accordingly.”?   How bad does it have to get?

Forecast fidelity aside, the data suggests that we won’t be turning into Greece anytime soon.